I really don’t miss having a camera and mike stuck in my face and being asked about the latest financial crisis or partisan political food fight. The current negotiation over raising the U.S. debt ceiling is both. So when I was invited on Fox Business News last Wednesday, I anticipated that the stalled talks over the timing and content of a debt ceiling fix, with an accompanying deficit reduction plan would be the focus of the interview. I was right, and not particularly happy about it.

For weeks the White House and the bipartisan leadership in Congress have been grappling with this issue behind closed doors. The stakes, whether we like it or not, are huge for the American economy. The political gamesmanship and jockeying for partisan advantage has polluted much of the coverage in the media. Happily, anchor Collin McShane- while quick to point out that while in office I had voted for debt ceiling extensions- was content to ask reasonable questions free of polemics. Our seven minute exchange barely scratched the surface of why this showdown is critical to the prospects for the U.S. economy in coming months.

The truth is, I am scared. You should be, too.

While elected leaders remain publicly committed to raising the statutory debt ceiling, the public itself is ambivalent if not hostile to the idea, especially since the national debt has been force-fed by exploding deficits in the aftermath of our bitter national recession. As the result, people I talk to on Capitol Hill remain uncertain how a divided Congress and a highly defensive Administration can come together to find common ground to allow the Treasury to pay its bills, and at the same time restore global confidence in America’s fiscal management and economic leadership. With more and more uncertainty surrounding the United States financial situation (and with complications elsewhere), Congress needs to act now to avoid a disruption in the nation’s credit and make a down payment on controlling federal spending.

Taxpayers have reason to be skeptical of calls for a “clean” debt ceiling increase. The debt level has doubled from 2003 to 2010. The budget proposed by the Obama Administration early this year continues huge deficits into future and defers difficult decisions, despite a clear mandate from the voters last fall to control spending . There are ample past precedents for linking financial reforms to debt ceiling bills (remember Graham-Rudman?), so fiscal conservatives are correct in pursuing a proposal that restores public confidence in Washington’s ability to control federal spending and live within its means. The best, perhaps only way to do this is to put the federal budget on a clear and enforceable path that reduces the debt relative to the national economy. There is no question that this will require widespread political pain and bipartisan compromise. There is really no alternative.

Why no alternative? Because of the consequences of a national default on our obligations, even a brief one, to the national credit (and through it to the budget and economy), a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely fashion would be a major setback with long-term negative consequences. The Treasury will be unable to pay its bills if the ceiling isn’t raised by August 2, but since this is an inexact science the markets are likely to be adversely affected sooner. Having researched this issue while in the House, it is clear to me that default would mean higher interest rates immediately on government debt, raising the cost of many basic transactions and jacking up debt service payments. More, it would ratchet up mortgage costs throughout the already weakened housing market. The overall effect on credit would be very negative, in an economy showing clear danger signs.

This controversy could not be occurring at a worse time internationally, as several of the more fiscally challenged EU members- Greece and Portugal in particular- teeter on the brink of their own more intractable financial crises. With one quarter of the world economy, the United States needs to get its house in order.

Congress needs to move now to vote on a nuanced package of spending reforms that combine institutional budgetary changes, entitlement reforms, and elimination of low priority spending. This should be started now, and continued in the fiscal 2012 budget due to be finished in October. The President can help by putting a specific plan for the debt ceiling before the American People.

And what about tax hikes (especially for somebody else?) These decisions would be easier to make with more revenue. Sadly, history tells us that if you raise income tax rates in a recession, you are likely to hurt growth (Herbert Hoover, phone home.) A better way to raise revenues is with pro-growth tax reform, but there is little consensus on how to do that, and a looming deadline. My advice would be that Congress take up a small revenue raiser- such as repatriation of stranded overseas earnings- and tackle fundamental tax reform later this year.

How Congress deals with the debt ceiling crisis will have a lasting effect on Erie and its economy. If you share my feeling, it’s time for your voice to be heard.

The July Fourth Weekend is one of my favorite holidays.

The summer in Erie is in full swing, from the beaches of Presque Isle to the vineyards of North East, to the shade trees of the city parks.

As we enjoy the opportunities of this weekend, and revel in our community at its best, I have always found it rewarding to pause to consider the original meaning of this holiday and how it has played a role through the life of our nation to awaken and fan American pride and patriotism. Independence Day has a unique place in the landscape of the American spirit, and over the centuries has inspired or been associated with a wonderful diversity of popular cultural icons. Yet, many of the earliest patriotic messages have been largely forgotten- and this is a wonderful occasion to reach back and rediscover them.

My contribution to your weekend reading is a patriotic song first printed in PENNSYLVANIA MAGAZINE in July 1775. Its author, “Atlanticus”, was really the fiery Thomas Paine publishing under a pseudonym. Anticipating the Revolution, its patriotic cadence inspired the Founders, and several generations thereafter. Enjoy.

LIBERTY TREE

In a chariot of light from the regions of day,
The Goddess of Liberty came;
Ten thousand celestials directed the way,
 And thither conducted the dame,
This fair budding branch, from the garden above,
  Where millions with millions agree;
She bro’t in her hand, as a pledge of her love,
  The plant she call’d Liberty Tree.
This celestial exotic struck deep in the ground,
  Like a native it flourish’d and bore;
The fame of its fruit, drew the nations around,
  To seek out its peaceable shore.
Unmindful of names or distinction they came,
  For freemen like brothers agree:
With one spirit endow’d, they one friendship pursued,
  And their temple was LIBERTY TREE.
Beneath this fair branch, like the patriarchs of old,
  Their bread, in contentment they eat.
Unwearied with trouble, of silver of gold,
  Or the cares of the grand and the great.
With timber and tar, they old England supplied,
  Supported her power on the seas;
Her battles they fought, without having a groat,
  For the honor of LIBERTY TREE.
But hear, O ye swains, (‘tis a tale most profane)
  How all the tyrannical powers,
Kings, Commons, and Lords, are uniting amain,
  To cut down this guardian of ours;
From the east to the west, blow the trumpet to arms,
  Thro’ the land let the sound of it flee,
Let the far and the near,- all unite with a cheer,
  In defense of our LIBERTY TREE.

[Reprinted from Ravitch, ed, “The American Reader: Words That Moved a Nation.” Harper Collins.]

There is an old saw about the inevitability of death and taxes. The author could have included another predictable and inscrutable event: legislative reapportionment.

Since the dawn of the United States, under the Constitution every ten years there is a Census which determines how many people are currently living in each community. State populations determine how many congressional seats (and presidential electors) each state has, and over time most of these came to be apportioned into single member congressional districts. Although at first the U.S. House grew with the national population, by the Twentieth Century the number of House seats was frozen- causing average district populations to rise with the growing American people, while some states gained representation at the expense of older established communities. What state lost the most number of Congressional Seats overall through repeated census results? Answer: Pennsylvania.

This year is no exception. Last year’s census has cost Pennsylvania another seat (down to 18), and is setting off a round of musical chairs to determine which solon, and which communities, lose their vote in Congress. Who determines the district lines? In our commonwealth it is the General Assembly, which is obliged to set the lines by statute before the next election, which will be contested in the new districts.

The legislature doesn’t have carte blanche in this process, however. Since the 1960’s, when disparate districts and civil rights cases led to the adoption of strict one-man, one-vote guidelines imposed by the Supreme Court, the courts have imposed increasingly rigid standards by which the legislators must draw the lines: with a timetable to produce districts that are contiguous and with equal populations. Nothing requires them to be pretty. Massachusetts in the second census produced a district that looked like a salamander, combining dissident communities into a seat intended for the outspoken Elbridge Gerry- minting the term “Gerrymander”, since applied to every congressional map that manipulated district lines to promote specific political outcomes.

This year the map will be drafted by a heavily Republican legislature in Pennsylvania, to be approved by a GOP governor. That won’t mean it will be easy. There will be conflicts between communities and political ambitions, and the courts impose challenging standards and deadlines. There are many potential pratfalls that could complicate things for those drawing the lines. Still, there are gathering telltales that the seat to be lost will be consolidated in the Pittsburgh region, and that one of the state’s Democratic House members may have to scramble to survive.

Don’t get me wrong. Congressional reapportionment NEVER produces the outcome desired by the political consultants that draw these maps. In 1982, a clever GOP map could not forestall a Republican wipeout in the state- with only neophyte Tom Ridge winning an upset in a tossup district. In 1992, the courts imposed a Democrat plan designed to tip Ridge’s seat when he ran statewide and kill Rep. Rick Santorum- but the latter survived to move to the Senate, and I inherited the Ridge seat (a constituency that had voted for Dukakis for President in 1988). The voters always fool the mapmakers.

How will this effect Erie?

Erie County, which once dominated the old 21st District (50% of the population in my first race), will provide less than 40% of the population in the new district. Part of Erie County may also be moved into a neighboring congressional district- after all, State Senate Democrats did that in their 1981 map and voted for it, while every other county currently in our congressional district is split between multiple districts. Erie is simply no longer going to be the center of political gravity in its district. Even when it was, it never monopolized the representation: witness the elections of Carroll Kearns and Mark Lincoln Marks of Mercer County in years past. Erie is likely to be the largest community in the district, but not dictate the outcome. This reality was presaged in last year’s election.

There is no certainty, but my crystal ball points to a consolidation of county lines below us that will likely give Butler County- fast growing, vibrant- a much bigger say in the election, and the inclusion of new rural communities that are politically conservative. The effect overall will be to make the seat more Republican, but not necessarily preclude Democratic competition, particularly in volatile political times.

Local opinion makers and community leaders should track the reapportionment process closely. The Erie Chamber of Commerce, like its counterparts elsewhere, should advocate for a fair outcome. All should recognize that like it or not, our district will become more diverse, and its representation more demanding. It will stretch to the edge of Pittsburgh (or half way across the state)! And perhaps that’s a good thing- or at least a worthwhile challenge.

What do you think?

It seemed to creep up on them unexpectedly.

While Washington observers were embracing a conventional wisdom that there is an economic recovery under way, the last week and its bad economic news jolted the political establishment, causing something like panic to set in even among those who are not naturally economic Cassandras.

There was no single data point that set off this round of pessimism and downward revision. The slight but unexpected rise in the jobless rate (to a painful 9.1%) was only the cap of a run of negative surprises which have injected new uncertainty into markets and left many policy makers scratching their heads.

For months we have been seeing telltale indicators of weak growth- a troubling phenomenon in the wake of such a deep and painful turndown, and contrary to what economic history would predict. High energy costs, an historic cause of downturns, have bounced up then begun to recede, but in advance of the summer driving season. The housing market, with its link to consumer confidence, has gone into a fresh slide nationally. In spite of robust congressional negotiations, efforts to control federal spending to rein in looming and dangerous national budget deficits have so far yielded only modest progress, and even a search for a formula to allow the federal debt ceiling to be raised has produced no immediate resolution. As the result, Moody’s has threatened a review of the rating of U.S. debt issues, even as international attention has been drawn to a fresh debt crisis in Greece. In the wake of all of this, the stock market has staggered: the Dow has experienced a five week losing streak that has taken the bloom off of investors’ recent gains.

For most people, the jobless rate is for all of its limitations the best measure of how the economy effects their lives. It is easy to read too much into a single month’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, this month’s report delivered last Friday projects the creation of a meager 54,000 net new jobs, as contrasted with 220,000 new jobs averaged over the prior three months. This is the lowest job creation result in eight months, and took analysts by surprise. This is overall very bad news for the economy, particularly in view of the net (5,000) loss of manufacturing jobs.

Not every indicator is bleak. Former Gov. Ed Rendell on the MORNING JOE program pointed out that states like Pennsylvania have experienced unexpected revenue windfalls- a sign of rising economic activity. Meanwhile, in Erie, our unemployment rate is now well below the national average.

My conclusion is that the national economy is facing a serious threat, but not yet a certainty, of a serious slowdown: perhaps taking us over the edge into a double-dip recession. Coming at a time like this, such a downturn would be devastating. Many small companies are still barely getting by, while those currently flush with cash could be deterred by bad news from making critical investments. Many middle class families have barely survived the past few years, and have no resources to fall back on.

What concerns me is that in the past we could confront a slowdown with various policy options. Most of these are not currently viable. At a time when the nation is already spending enormous amounts and is running massive budget deficits, it is ludicrous to talk about launching an ambitious new stimulus plan. Interest rates are already low. A tax increase, imposing a fresh burden on the economy, would be damaging.

I hope my pessimism is misplaced. I especially hope that the coming months see a restoration of national economic growth that would permit traditional manufacturing economies such as we have in Erie to reposition themselves within new niches in the global economy. Erie still has a bright future through exports, energy and new technologies- if we have the entrepreneurs and leadership to seize it. Now we need a realistic national agenda to stimulate growth and improve our competitiveness by making tough decisions about aspects of our economy over which we exert control: tax reform, regulatory reform, trade, energy policy and fiscal reform. I will happily share my ideas on these subjects, in the hope you will contribute yours.

Your comments are most welcome, as always.

Long before I was elected to federal office, I always regarded the Memorial Day weekend as something more than a commencement of summer festivities. Although no English family member has recently pursued a career in the military, my father’s involvement in the OSS in World War II, my brother-in-law’s distinguished service in Europe in the same conflict, and my wife’s cousin (a retired Admiral) have given the honor and sacrifice of military service a respect and familiarity in our clan. Memorial Day is an indispensible national holiday: an opportunity for a free nation to pause to consider the losses that average citizens have suffered on behalf of their country in order to protect it, and to preserve our freedom.

In the past, as a member of Congress I usually took every opportunity to attend parades and special ceremonies honoring those who had served, especially those who had forfeited their lives on behalf of America. I enjoyed making this small contribution, but since passing the baton I have enjoyed even more attending Memorial Day events as a citizen, without any political fanfare. This gives me the chance for reflection, and an expression of gratitude to those who sacrificed to make our nation secure.

This year I spent time with family and caught up on domestic obligations. I watched an obligatory war movie on cable (Gregory Peck in “Twelve O’clock High”, a stunning film even now), and took in light fare at a theater (“The Hangover, Part II”). We went out to dinner, and went shopping. But I also took time while in DC to visit the FDR Memorial; drive through Arlington Cemetery, where an ancestor sleeps lost in the Civil War (our bloodiest conflict per capita); and admire the Rolling Thunder armada as it rumbled through the capital. Most of all, I took a few hours to read history and consider what , and who, have made our country great.

That may seem like a quaint thing to do at a time like this. Our country has gone through an economic reversal that is unprecedented in our memory, and has shaken the foundations of our national consensus. We are struggling under a mountain of debt, with a weak economy. We are in the final phase of withdrawal from the theater of one war, engaged in another, and involved in some measure in another conflict. Americans are understandably confused, fatigued, angry. These things are all appropriate subjects for political debate, in which patriotic citizens can arrive at different conclusions. But that is not what Memorial Day is about.

Memorial Day is intended to be a gathering of all citizens, from every part of the political community, to express solemn respect for the service and willing sacrifice by generations of individual Americans on behalf of our nation. That expression doesn’t require blanket approval of every campaign or conflict, just a willingness to honor veterans of every generation for their sacrifice and love of country. One can oppose a policy, but still honor the troops that answer the call. The latter is what this holiday is for. It is important that we recognize and preserve this holiday as long as America requires such sacrifices.

So, this weekend I was proud to be part of the celebration- and thankful for the contribution our heroes have made to making ours a free people.

NOTE: this is the first of an occasional blog I will be submitting to this wonderful website. I have been a big admirer of Mike Richwalsky’s work, and its role in building a town square for Erie’s blog community. When Jim Berlin and Peter Panepento decided to shut down their frolicsome GlobalErie site last fall, and my law firm Arent Fox LLP plopped new responsibilities in my lap, I had to drop my “Presque Isle to the Potomac” blog out of concern for my commitment. Happily, my Government Relations practice (grappling with healthcare, trade, tax and energy issues for a diverse client base) has taken off and I can return to community concerns as Chris and I split our time between Erie and Washington. I am pleased now to be following Jim here to this website, with thanks to Mike, Jim, Peter and all the regulars who spiced things up at the other place. My hope is that the (at least) weekly entry will extend beyond the dismal science of economics and the much tarnished glitter of politics , to the things that matter to people in our part of Pennsylvania. My rule at the last site was to encourage diverse responses, and to embrace the civility and high standards that set the tone at GlobalErie. I realize that is a lot to aspire to- feel free to hold me to it.